On Monday 19 May, Prime Minister Keir Starmer will host European Council President, António Costa and European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen at the first ever ‘EU-UK Summit’. This will be a key moment for the Labour government’s ‘reset’ of relations with the EU.
A successful summit could see Labour delivering on its manifesto commitment for ‘an improved and ambitious relationship with our European partners’, ‘an ambitious new UK-EU security pact’ and measures for ‘tearing down unnecessary barriers to trade’.
Progress in the reset matters for Northern Ireland just as it does for the rest of the UK in addressing some of the more disruptive effects of Brexit. The Government’s aspiration for agreements to ease the movement of UK touring artists, on youth mobility, on mutual recognition of professional qualifications, would benefit people in Northern Ireland.
What matters most, however, for Northern Ireland is agreement on removing barriers to trade across the Irish Sea.
An ambitious veterinary or ‘SPS’ agreement has the potential to significantly reduce and potentially remove many of the post-Brexit formalities, checks and controls on goods moving from Great Britain into Northern Ireland that exist owing to the interaction between Windsor Framework and the trade arrangements agreed under the UK’s Trade and Cooperation Agreement with the EU.
Many voters in Northern Ireland appreciate this. In polling recently conducted by LucidTalk for Queen’s University Belfast, two-thirds (66%) of respondents said they approve of the UK government’s policy of pursuing closer relations with the EU.
For most of these respondents the most highly ranked of ten priorities are ‘increasing trade in goods’ and ‘measures to reduces formalities, checks and controls on the movement of goods between GB and Northern Ireland’. The next two priorities are a UK-EU youth mobility scheme and an SPS agreement. Of least concern overall for them were tackling illegal immigration and energy cooperation
Support for closer UK-EU relations is particularly high among Sinn Féin (98%), SDLP (98%) and Alliance (97%) voters. A majority of UUP voters (57%) are also supportive. And more females (70%) than males (61%) favour closer ties. Respondents aged 55-64 are least supportive (57%).
Most respondents identifying as ‘strongly unionist’ (74%), however, oppose the pursuit of closer UK-EU relations. This is the case for almost three-quarters of DUP (71%) voters and even more TUV (89%) voters. The opposition clearly fits with the well-established pro-Brexit and Eurosceptic positions of the two parties.
Respondents who identify as ‘strongly unionist’ have long been most exercised by the Windsor Framework arrangements. The overwhelming majority (90%) currently think the Windsor Framework is having a negative impact on Northern Ireland’s position in the UK internal market. A similar proportion (88%) believe that it is undermining Northern Ireland’s constitutional position as part of the United Kingdom.
A key driver of such views is the so-called ‘Irish Sea border’ and the formalities, checks and controls on GB-NI movement of goods. And many voters have personal experience of this. In this latest poll, 85% or respondents identifying as ‘strongly unionist’ maintain they have ‘direct experience of GB suppliers identifying the Windsor Framework as the reason for not sending goods’ to them in Northern Ireland.
Just over half (56%) of ‘slightly unionist’ respondents also have such direct experiences.
A similar proportion (60%) of ‘slight unionists’ also currently think the Windsor Framework is having a negative impact on Northern Ireland’s position in the UK internal market.
By contrast, far fewer respondents in Northern Ireland identifying as ‘neutral’ (42%) ‘slightly nationalist’ (38%) and ‘strongly nationalist’ (18%) claim the same direct experience of GB suppliers using the Windsor Framework to explain why they are unable to send them goods.
While most unionists would rather see the back of the Windsor Framework – all unionist MLAs voting against ‘democratic consent’ for it in December 2024 – the majority of MLAs voted in favour of its continued implementation. It will therefore remain in place therefore until at least 2030, most likely longer unless a future democratic consent motion fails to receive majority support.
And with the UK government committed to ‘the full, timely, and faithful implementation of the Windsor Framework’, the effects of current arrangements are likely to continue unless there is change in the wider UK-EU relationship that involves closer trade relations and especially UK-wide regulatory alignment with the EU in areas covered by the Windsor Framework.
Most voters in Northern Ireland appear to accept this. For those who do not support a closer UK-EU relationship, the question arises of how they envisage the effects of the Windsor Framework being addressed.
Join David and colleagues on Wednesday 28 May at 12.30pm for the latest post-Brexit Clinic at Queen’s for a more indepth analysis of developments and the findings of the most recent @LucidTalk polling on the Protocol/Windsor Framework. You can register here.
The featured image appears courtesy of a Creative Commons Licence.
